Cliodynamics

Peter Turchin's research program applying mathematical dynamical systems to history — finding recurrent patterns of political instability driven by secular cycles of elite overproduction and popular immiseration.

Mathematical history: Turchin applies differential equations and time-series analysis to historical data (wages, violence, state capacity) to find lawlike regularities. Secular cycles (Turchin & Nefedov): ~200-year cycles of state formation, growth, crisis, and collapse driven by overpopulation → falling real wages → elite wealth concentration → elite fragmentation → political crisis. Elite overproduction: when elite numbers grow faster than elite positions, internal competition → instability. Applied to predict US political turmoil peaking in the 2020s.