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person1953–

Ken Rogoff

Disciplines:
economics
harvard
imf
finance/debt

Summary

American economist — Harvard professor — former Chief Economist of the IMF — author of This Time Is Different (with Carmen Reinhart) — the most widely cited economist on government debt, financial crises, and central banking.

Core Contribution

Creates the comprehensive historical database of financial crises — Rogoff and Reinhart's This Time Is Different (mapping 800 years of financial crises across 66 countries) is the most cited empirical contribution to the economics of sovereign debt and became the intellectual foundation for austerity arguments after 2008.

Key Spikes & Highlights

  • Was a world chess champion candidate — ranked 7th in the world in 1978 and represented the US in World Chess Olympiads before choosing economics over professional chess; the combination of chess grandmaster level thinking and economic research is unusual and may explain his ability to think in complex strategic frameworks
  • The 90% debt-to-GDP finding from This Time Is Different was significantly undermined when a Harvard graduate student (Thomas Herndon) found a spreadsheet error in the original paper — the incident became the most famous academic spreadsheet error in social science and forced a substantial revision of the debt threshold claim

Notable Works & Achievements

The Curse of Cash

This Time Is Different

Historical Influences

Carmen Reinhart Charles Kindleberger

Intellectual Lineage

Rochester, New York Yale MIT Harvard IMF Chief Economist

Contemporaries & Peers

Carmen Reinhart Larry Summers Olivier Blanchard

Minds Influenced

Sovereign debt economics

Intellectual Posterity

This Time Is Different 90% debt-to-GDP thresholdRogoff-Reinhart research

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Ken Rogoff

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