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institution1994-2000

Long-Term Capital Management

Disciplines:
finance
finance/hedge funds

Summary

The hedge fund founded by John Meriwether (and including Nobel laureates Merton and Scholes) that generated extraordinary returns through leveraged arbitrage before losing $4.6B and requiring a Fed-orchestrated bailout in 1998.

Core Contribution

LTCM as the definitive case of model risk and leverage: the fund's strategy (convergence trades on mispriced bonds, mathematically validated by the Black-Scholes framework) worked until it didn't. The Russia default (1998) caused correlations to break in ways the models didn't anticipate — all trades went wrong simultaneously. At peak leverage, LTCM controlled $125B in assets with $5B in capital (25:1 leverage). The Fed's orchestration of a private bailout (not taxpayer money, but Fed-pressured Wall Street firms) established the 'too big to fail / too interconnected to fail' precedent that shaped the 2008 response.

Key Spikes & Highlights

  • At peak: 25:1 leverage, $125B in assets. The fund's 1997 return was 17% after fees; in 1998 it lost $4.6B — nearly all its capital — in 4 months.

Historical Influences

Black-Scholes model Salomon Brothers arbitrage desk

Intellectual Lineage

Hedge Fund Industry Quantitative Finance

Allied Works

When Genius Failed

Contemporaries & Peers

Salomon Brothers Goldman Sachs

Minds Influenced

Financial Risk Management Systemic Risk Regulation2008 Crisis Response

Intellectual Posterity

Financial Risk Management Too Big to Fail Doctrine

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Long-Term Capital Management

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