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person1992–present

Michael Mauboussin

Disciplines:
investing/investment strategy
finance/corporate finance
behavioral economics/decision science
behavioral economics/behavioral finance

Summary

American investment strategist and author, currently at Morgan Stanley, known for applying cognitive psychology and complexity science to investment decision-making.

Core Contribution

Developed a practitioner framework for investment decision-making that integrates base rates, reference class forecasting, and psychological bias awareness — and wrote one of the earliest and most accurate analyses of Amazon's business model (the negative working capital cycle) in 1999.

Key Spikes & Highlights

  • Base Rate Obsession (argues most investment errors come from failing to consult the statistical distribution of outcomes before making predictions — advocates reference class forecasting as the primary corrective to inside-view overconfidence)

Notable Works & Achievements

Expectations Investing

More Than You Know

Think Twice

The Success Equation

Historical Influences

Daniel Kahneman Charlie Munger Warren Buffett

Intellectual Lineage

Behavioral Finance Tradition Value Investing SchoolComplexity Science Applied to Finance

Contemporaries & Peers

Howard Marks James MontierBen Graham

Minds Influenced

No recorded minds influenced.

Intellectual Posterity

The Success Equation Base Rate Book

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Michael Mauboussin

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