Philip Tetlock

American psychologist who conducted the most rigorous long-term study of expert political forecasting — finding that experts perform barely better than random chance — and subsequently studied the characteristics of 'superforecasters.'

Expert Political Judgment: twenty years of data showing that political experts' predictions are barely better than dart-throwing chimps. Foxes vs. hedgehogs: foxes (who know many things) outperform hedgehogs (who know one big thing) in forecasting. Superforecasting: a small subset of ordinary people who apply probabilistic thinking consistently can outforecast intelligence analysts.