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concept2003-present

Selectorate Theory

Disciplines:
political science

Summary

The political theory that leader behavior is best explained by the size of the winning coalition (those whose support the leader needs to maintain power) and the selectorate (all those with a nominal say) — explaining autocracy, democracy, and foreign policy as leader survival strategies.

Core Contribution

Two key variables: (1) selectorate S = all those with a nominal role in choosing the leader; (2) winning coalition W = the subset whose support is essential. Large W / large S (democracy): leaders must provide public goods to keep a large coalition. Small W / large S (autocracy): leaders can buy a small coalition with private goods (corruption) and tax/oppress everyone else. Key predictions: democracies trade with democracies, rarely go to war with each other, provide more public goods; autocrats survive by keeping W small. The Dictator's Handbook is the popular version.

Key Spikes & Highlights

  • Selectorate theory makes an uncomfortable prediction about foreign aid: aid to autocratic governments strengthens the leader's ability to buy loyalty without improving public welfare — because a small winning coalition means leaders don't need to provide public goods to survive.

Historical Influences

Game Theory Rational Choice Theory

Intellectual Lineage

Rational Choice Political ScienceGame Theory

Allied Works

The Logic of Political SurvivalThe Dictator's Handbook Predicting Politics

Contemporaries & Peers

Democratic Peace Theory Institutional Economics

Minds Influenced

Comparative Politics International Relations Foreign Aid Research

Intellectual Posterity

Comparative Politics Political Economy

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