The political theory that leader behavior is best explained by the size of the winning coalition (those whose support the leader needs to maintain power) and the selectorate (all those with a nominal say) — explaining autocracy, democracy, and foreign policy as leader survival strategies.
Two key variables: (1) selectorate S = all those with a nominal role in choosing the leader; (2) winning coalition W = the subset whose support is essential. Large W / large S (democracy): leaders must provide public goods to keep a large coalition. Small W / large S (autocracy): leaders can buy a small coalition with private goods (corruption) and tax/oppress everyone else. Key predictions: democracies trade with democracies, rarely go to war with each other, provide more public goods; autocrats survive by keeping W small. The Dictator's Handbook is the popular version.
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