Leopold Aschenbrenner's 2024 long-form essay arguing that AGI is coming by 2027–2030, that OpenAI and other labs lack adequate security measures against Chinese espionage, and that the AI race represents the defining geopolitical competition of the next decade.
Provided the most specific, credible, and detailed near-term AGI risk scenario document — written by a former OpenAI insider — arguing that the transition to AGI will happen faster than most assume and that security failures could be catastrophic.
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