The Half-Life of Facts

Samuel Arbesman's 2012 book arguing that facts have 'half-lives' — that the knowledge in any given field is systematically revised and overturned at measurable rates — and that this predictable obsolescence of knowledge has profound implications for how we should hold beliefs.

Applies scientometrics — the quantitative study of science — to show that 'facts' in medicine, economics, and other fields have measurable half-lives, making epistemic humility quantitatively justified and updating one's beliefs a rational obligation.