4 thinkers, books, and ideas connected to this field.
Peter Turchin's application of his structural-demographic theory to American history — arguing that the US is entering a period of political discord comparable to the 1850s-1870s and 1920s-1930s.
Russian-American scientist who founded cliodynamics — the mathematical modeling of historical dynamics — using models from population biology to explain cycles of political instability, elite overproduction, and the rise and fall of empires (Ages of Discord, End Times).
Turchin and Nefedov's quantitative study of secular cycles in agrarian societies — testing structural-demographic theory against historical data from medieval France, England, Rome, and Russia.
Peter Turchin's 2006 application of his cliodynamics framework to the rise and fall of empires — arguing that cooperation (asabiyya) and geographic frontiers between civilizations drive imperial expansion, and that internal factional conflict drives collapse.