Peter Turchin's application of his structural-demographic theory to American history — arguing that the US is entering a period of political discord comparable to the 1850s-1870s and 1920s-1930s.
Structural-demographic theory applied to America: elite overproduction (too many well-educated people competing for a fixed number of elite positions) → elite fragmentation → political polarization → societal crisis. The ~50-year political violence cycle in American history. The 'father of cliodynamics' applies quantitative methods to historical dynamics. Predicted increased US political violence in the 2020s — published in 2016.
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