AI safety researcher at Open Philanthropy whose 'biological anchors' framework for forecasting transformative AI timelines became the most widely discussed quantitative AI timeline model in the EA/AI safety community.
Biological anchors for AI timelines: Cotra's framework estimates when AI will require the amount of computation corresponding to the human brain's training computation across evolution — using this as an anchor for when transformative AI might appear. The framework (and its various scenarios) became the basis for Open Philanthropy's AI-related grantmaking and influenced how the AI safety community thinks quantitatively about timelines. Represents the 'forecasting-first' approach to AI risk that distinguishes the EA-adjacent community from purely technical safety research.
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