7 thinkers, books, and ideas connected to this field.
American AI safety researcher and forecaster — Research Associate at Oxford's Future of Humanity Institute — who is considered the most analytically rigorous thinker in the effective altruism and AI safety community — whose interview with Dwarkesh became one of the most discussed AI podcasts ever recorded.
American AI safety researcher — former OpenAI researcher — who left OpenAI in 2024 citing safety concerns and forfeited his vested equity — author of forecasting documents on AI timelines and transformation.
Turkish-British economist and AI forecaster — researcher at Epoch AI — who works on economic models of AI's impact on growth and forecasting AI capabilities trajectories.
American AI safety researcher and forecaster — former OpenAI researcher — who published Situational Awareness (2024), a detailed forecast of AGI development timelines arguing that AGI will arrive by 2027 and will trigger a geopolitical race with China — whose departure from OpenAI and publication became a major AI policy event.
Turkish-British AI researcher at Epoch AI — who works on forecasting AI capabilities, compute trends, and the economics of AI development.
AI safety researcher at Open Philanthropy whose 'biological anchors' framework for forecasting transformative AI timelines became the most widely discussed quantitative AI timeline model in the EA/AI safety community.
Podcast associated with Manifold Markets — the play-money prediction market platform — covering forecasting, prediction market mechanics, and probabilistic reasoning.