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person1994–present

Annie Duke

Disciplines:
usa
psychology/decision making
poker
behavioral economics/behavioral science

Summary

American professional poker player turned decision consultant and author — who won the World Series of Poker Tournament of Champions (2004) and wrote Thinking in Bets and Quit — applying poker's probabilistic thinking to business and personal decision-making.

Core Contribution

Created the most practical framework for decision quality under uncertainty — Thinking in Bets argues that decisions should be evaluated by process rather than outcome (because outcomes have luck components), and that 'resulting' (judging decisions by their outcomes) is the dominant failure mode of human judgment.

Key Spikes & Highlights

  • Resulting (Annie's concept: judging the quality of a decision by its outcome rather than by the quality of the reasoning at the time the decision was made; a good decision can lead to a bad outcome and vice versa because outcomes have luck components; the fix is to evaluate the decision process itself — what did you know, what could you have known, was the reasoning sound — independent of what happened)

Notable Works & Achievements

Thinking in Bets

How to Decide

Quit

Historical Influences

Poker probability and game theory Kahneman and Tversky

Intellectual Lineage

Columbia Poker careerDecision quality consultingThinking in Bets

Contemporaries & Peers

Phil TetlockMichael Mauboussin

Minds Influenced

Decision quality movementLenny's Podcast

Intellectual Posterity

Thinking in Bets ResultingAnnie Duke as decision quality

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Annie Duke

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