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person1990s–

Daniel Kokotajlo

Disciplines:
philosophy
ai safety
forecasting
artificial intelligence/openai

Summary

American AI safety researcher — former OpenAI researcher — who left OpenAI in 2024 citing safety concerns and forfeited his vested equity — author of forecasting documents on AI timelines and transformation.

Core Contribution

Creates the most discussed internal forecast of AGI timelines — Kokotajlo's estimate (that transformative AI would come much sooner than mainstream forecasts predicted, and that the world is not prepared) and his decision to leave OpenAI forfeiting equity to speak freely about safety concerns made him a significant figure in public AI safety discourse.

Key Spikes & Highlights

  • Left OpenAI and forfeited vested equity to speak freely about safety concerns — the financial cost of speaking freely (potentially millions of dollars of unvested equity) makes his departure one of the most costly whistleblower-adjacent acts in Silicon Valley history

Notable Works & Achievements

Essays on AI timelines and safety

Historical Influences

Eliezer Yudkowsky Paul Christiano

Intellectual Lineage

Philosophy backgroundOpenAI

Contemporaries & Peers

Paul Christiano Eliezer Yudkowsky

Minds Influenced

AI safety community

Intellectual Posterity

OpenAI safety departureAI timelines forecast

Discussing

Daniel Kokotajlo

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