Peter Turchin

Russian-American scientist who founded cliodynamics — the mathematical modeling of historical dynamics — using models from population biology to explain cycles of political instability, elite overproduction, and the rise and fall of empires (Ages of Discord, End Times).

Created cliodynamics as a quantitative science of history — demonstrating that cycles of societal breakdown and integration follow predictable patterns driven by elite overproduction, declining living standards, and intra-elite competition — and predicting the instability of the 2020s in his 2010 Nature paper.