PANTHEON
ExploreBuild My Library
© 2026 Pantheon — an atlas of the ideas that shaped how we think.
concept1979–present

Prospect theory

Disciplines:
psychology
economics
philosophy/decision theory

Summary

Prospect theory is a behavioral economic theory that describes how people make decisions under uncertainty, belonging to the moment when economists began to question the rational choice model.

Core Contribution

Prospect theory argues that people tend to be loss-averse, preferring to avoid losses rather than acquiring equivalent gains, and that they are more sensitive to losses than gains. This is captured by the value function, which is concave for gains and convex for losses.

Key Spikes & Highlights

  • Loss aversion (Prospect theory's value function is asymmetric, with losses weighted more heavily than equivalent gains, as demonstrated in the Asian disease problem)
  • Framing effects (the way information is presented influences decisions, as shown in the example of the disease problem framed as either a gain or a loss)
  • Reference dependence (outcomes are evaluated relative to a reference point, rather than in absolute terms, as seen in the endowment effect)

Historical Influences

Daniel Kahneman Amos Tversky

Intellectual Lineage

expected utility theory behavioral economics

Contemporaries & Peers

expected utility theory regret theoryrank-dependent expected utility theory

Minds Influenced

Richard Thaler Cass Sunstein

Intellectual Posterity

loss aversion framing effectsendowment effect

Discussing

Prospect theory

Ask anything about Prospect theory — their ideas, influences, contradictions, legacy.

Sign in to start a conversation.