The Limits to Growth

The 1972 Club of Rome report using MIT system dynamics models to argue that unlimited economic and population growth on a finite planet will lead to collapse — one of the most influential and contested environmental documents of the 20th century.

System dynamics of collapse: Donella and Dennis Meadows et al. used Jay Forrester's system dynamics methodology to model five interacting variables (population, food production, industrialization, pollution, resource consumption) and showed that under all 'business as usual' scenarios, the system collapsed before 2100. The policy conclusion: deliberate intervention to achieve a 'steady state' economy is necessary. The report's predictions were widely criticized (particularly by Julian Simon's cornucopian alternative) and partially vindicated (2020 update shows real-world data tracking the 'standard run' collapse scenario). Its influence on the environmental movement and global governance is immense.