Peter Turchin's 2006 application of his cliodynamics framework to the rise and fall of empires — arguing that cooperation (asabiyya) and geographic frontiers between civilizations drive imperial expansion, and that internal factional conflict drives collapse.
Applies the asabiyya/cliodynamics framework to European and world history — War and Peace and War demonstrates that the rise of great empires (Rome, Carolingian, Ottoman, Russian, American) follows predictable patterns of frontier-generated solidarity, while collapse follows equally predictable patterns of elite overproduction and internal strife.
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